The Shape of What Cannot Be Predicted

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Science excels at periodic phenomena — orbits, waves, cycles. We build technology on them because we can predict them. When we design a bridge or launch a satellite, we rely on behaviour that repeats, behaviour we can model with equations and solve in advance.

But there are phenomena in the universe that aren’t periodic yet aren’t random either. They follow rules, and the rules don’t compress. The only way to know where they lead is to follow them, step by step, all the way.

Stephen Wolfram calls this computational irreducibility. Some processes cannot be shortcut. To know the billionth digit of π, you must compute it. To know where a fractal goes, you must iterate: z = z² + c, again and again. No formula leaps you to the answer. The process is the answer.

This matters because the two most significant phenomena we know — life and mind — belong to this category.

Two languages of infinity

David Deutsch observes that human brains and DNA molecules are both general-purpose information-storage media. More remarkably, the information they store shares a property of cosmic significance: once physically embodied in a suitable environment, it tends to cause itself to remain so. Deutsch calls this self-perpetuating information knowledge, and notes it is unlikely to arise except through error-correcting processes — biological evolution or human thought.

Both are learning processes. Evolution generates variation through mutation, tests it through selection, and retains what survives. Human knowledge grows through conjecture and criticism — we propose ideas, test them against reality, and keep what works. The parallel is not metaphor. It is structural.

Both processes move through combinatorial spaces so vast that the universe cannot contain all their possibilities at once. The space of possible molecules dwarfs the number of atoms in existence. The space of possible thoughts is no smaller. These are not spaces you can map in advance. You can only explore them by traversing them.

Biological evolution doesn’t unfold according to a formula you can solve in advance. Neither does the growth of human knowledge. You cannot shortcut four billion years of selection. You cannot leap to what humanity will know in five hundred years. The only path is through.

Why your life is hard to reason about

This is why reasoning about your own life is difficult. You can predict the periodic parts — seasons, schedules, recurring patterns. But the part that matters most, the part that is you, is computationally irreducible.

Your knowledge grows through the same error-correcting process: you conjecture, you test, you revise. Each step opens new possibilities that didn’t exist before. The space you move through expands as you move. No formula captures this. No shortcut exists.

You cannot skip ahead. You can only experience it.


Further reading:

Wolfram, Stephen. A New Kind of Science. Champaign, IL: Wolfram Media, 2002. Chapter 12: Computational Irreducibility

Deutsch, David. The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World. New York: Viking, 2011.

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